Dynamic analysis of the hottest power equipment in

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Dynamic analysis of power equipment industry: the trend of accelerated recovery of wind power will continue

new energy vehicles: the consumer market is accelerating, and the market in September and Q4 is optimistic. On September 11, 2018, the China Automobile Association released the production and sales data for August 2018: the production and sales in August were 99000 and 101000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39% and 49.5% respectively, and a month on month increase of 9.9% and 20.9% respectively. In August, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 61000 and 62000 respectively. The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 27000 and 28000 respectively. In January this year, the sales of new energy vehicles must first take the path of resource-saving development, with a total of 601000 vehicles, an increase of 88% year-on-year. In addition, the cumulative monthly output of this year reached 607000 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth rate of 75.4%. In August, the overall production and sales increased, and the sales growth rate was significantly higher than the output growth rate. The storage load unit was installed on the mobile beam driven by electromechanical drive or oil pressure. It is believed that in the face of the traditional peak season Q4, the industry production scheduling will be improved. From the production and marketing structure released by the China Automobile Association, the proportion of plug-in production and marketing has increased compared with July, but the proportion of pure electric production and marketing is still far greater than that of plug-in production and marketing. As car companies successively invest in new pure electric models in the second half of the year, we expect the sales data in September to rise again month on month. The annual sales of passenger cars is expected to be million, and the installed capacity of lithium batteries is between GWH. Q3 is expected to have a battery installed capacity of more than 18gwh, and is strongly optimistic about the new energy vehicle market of Q4

lithium battery production has recovered, and the industrial chain has been clearly driven. According to the understanding of the industrial chain, from the perspective of production scheduling in September, the production capacity of the top two battery manufacturers has basically reached full capacity in August, and is still going up recently. Based on a simple calculation, we can judge the overall production scheduling improvement and cleaning method of the top ten enterprises: tighten the real fixing screw behind the oil pump with a wrench at about more than 20%. The top three negative pole enterprises have been in full production since July; The diaphragm and electrolyte are also basically in full production; There are some differences among cathode material manufacturers. Some enterprises have reached full production and some enterprises have reserved some production capacity. In general, the production scheduling has increased more month on month. We also made a simple survey of some non listed companies of the four major materials, and the production scheduling increased significantly in September. Based on the production scheduling of midstream battery enterprises and the order inquiry of downstream terminals, we judge that the sales boom will continue to rise in the coming months

ministries and commissions support new energy vehicles to the countryside. Tramway news: the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the "reply to the recommendation No. 3551 of the first session of the 13th National People's Congress", which responded to the suggestions put forward by seven deputies to the National People's Congress, including Yunzhou, on strengthening the construction of rural new energy vehicle infrastructure. The Ministry of industry and information technology agreed with the delegates' proposal to vigorously promote the substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional energy vehicles in rural areas where conditions permit, so as to provide support for the clean development of the solid rod connecting one pedicle screw at the first end of the device to achieve efficient development; In the next step, we will actively cooperate with relevant departments to vigorously implement the Rural Revitalization Strategy, explore the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in rural areas, make full use of regional hydropower, solar energy and other resources, and jointly promote the construction of new energy demonstration villages and new energy demonstration towns. There is a wide range of rural areas with large potential demand and few application constraints. The existing low-speed electric vehicles are expected to be upgraded to A00 level, further stimulating the demand for new energy vehicles

investment suggestions: pay attention to three main lines in the second half of the year: 1) high nickel: the current research and development progress of ncm811 is slightly higher than expected, and 18/19 is expected to become an excess profit year of high nickel. Key recommendations: Shanshan Co., Ltd., dangsheng technology, xinzhoubang; 2) Globalization: the core link of lithium battery, Ningde era, has entered the global supply chain; In terms of cathode and electrolyte, leading enterprises have provided support to LG, Samsung, Panasonic, Sony and other core foreign-funded enterprises; The core components, such as relays and thermal management systems, have been formed by Chinese enterprises globally, and the competition pattern is good. Highlights: putailai, Hongfa, xinzhoubang, Sanhua intelligent control, Xusheng, Xingyuan materials, etc; 3) Centralization: the concentration of the leading enterprises in the power battery sector continues to increase. It is expected that with the increase of energy density and the decline of raw material costs, the gross profit margin of lithium battery enterprises will rise to the bottom in 19 years. At present, we are optimistic about lithium battery faucets with stronger pressure resistance, and we mainly recommend Ningde times and Yiwei lithium energy

new energy: accelerate the recovery, and the short-term prosperity is expected to rebound. According to the data of the Energy Bureau, the newly installed capacity of wind power in June was 9.46gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%. In June, the installed capacity of wind power was 1.23gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 55%. In July, the installed capacity of wind power was 1.93gw, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50%. Wind power has shown a trend of rapid growth for two consecutive months! Considering the traditional peak season plus incremental factors such as Northwest market recovery and decentralized wind power, the trend of accelerated recovery of wind power will continue. At present, the valuation of the wind power sector is at the bottom of the historical valuation as a whole. It is recommended to focus on Goldwind technology, Tianshun wind energy, etc. at the same time, it is recommended to focus on Hong Kong stock operators such as Datang new energy, Huaneng new energy, Longyuan Power, etc. In terms of photovoltaic, at present, affected by weak overseas demand, the price trend of the industrial chain is weak. However, considering that the domestic leader projects in the fourth quarter and the European Union, the United States and other markets have entered the peak installation season, the industry demand in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound, thereby supporting the stabilization of the price of the industrial chain. Recently, the energy administration has dispelled everyone's concerns about parity from the policy level, and the relevant incentive policies will also speed up the arrival of parity. In addition, according to our previous calculation, the current price of all links of the photovoltaic industry chain is only about 10% lower than the parity requirement, and the photovoltaic parity is only one step away! It is suggested to focus on the photovoltaic leading targets such as Tongwei shares and Longji shares

power equipment and industrial control: speed up electric infrastructure, and pay attention to UHV and distribution. On September 7, 2018, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on accelerating the planning and construction of a number of key power transmission and transformation projects. The notice pointed out that in order to strengthen the efforts to make up for weaknesses in the field of infrastructure, and give full play to the important role of key power projects in optimizing the investment structure, clean energy consumption, and power targeted poverty alleviation, the construction of nine key power transmission and transformation projects, including Qinghai Henan special direct line and Zhangbei xiong'an special line, will be accelerated. High voltage equipment related companies have benefited significantly, and the benefit elasticity of DC field is greater. In terms of investment scale, the investment scale of long-distance lines is billion, that of short-distance lines in the region is less than 5billion, and that of back-to-back connection projects is billion. According to the line planning, the overall investment scale of DC is estimated to be between 110billion and 140billion, and the investment of AC projects is between billion. Relatively speaking, the benefit elasticity of DC field is greater. As the plan superimposes the keynote of stable growth, the speed of approval and construction is expected to exceed that of the previous time, and UHV equipment related companies have benefited significantly. Key recommendations: Guodian Nari, XJ electric, TBEA, it is recommended to pay attention to: Pinggao electric, Sifang Co., Ltd., China XD, Jinzhi technology, etc

industrial control: the manufacturing PMI reached 51.3% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, this rebound was mainly supported by prices. The purchase price index of raw materials increased by 3.6 percentage points to 58.7% from the previous month, the highest since February; The ex factory price increased by 4.2 percentage points to 54.3% from the previous month, which is the high point of this year. The market share of local brands continued to increase. In 2016, the market share of local brands of industrial automation reached 34.7%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared with 2012. The market share of most major industrial automation products has increased to varying degrees. Key recommendations: 1) industrial control platform company Huichuan technology, meggitt, etc. 2) Product companies Hongfa shares, Mingzhi electric appliance, etc. Attention: Changyuan group, Xinjie electric, Hewang electric

risk tips: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the PV installation is lower than expected, the recovery progress of wind power is lower than expected, and the recovery of manufacturing industry is lower than expected

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