Dynamic analysis of polyester production and marke

After the Spring Festival, China's polyester production and marketing dynamic analysis

Business News Agency, February 5

behind the optimism of the upstream and downstream polyester market and the continued warming of market sentiment, the production and marketing situation of polyester products is still uncertain, the growth of PTA supply, the accelerated progress of contract goods, the increase of PX supply and load, etc., will all hit the future market. At present, the main beneficial factors of the market also lie in the low inventory of PX and PTA, the lower price of PX and PTA than the average level in recent years, and the intervention of traders. It is worth noting that with the continuous rise of the upstream and downstream prices, the rise rate of the downstream is slower than that of the upstream, and the production and marketing level of the downstream is not enough to fully transfer costs. The failure to effectively improve the polyester load after the holiday will fundamentally restrict the rise of PTA prices, The increase of PTA supply will be in sharp contrast to the decline of demand. Once the PTA price rises weakly and the PTA load rises slower than Px, the negative transmission of PTA price will affect Px, and the PX market price will inevitably change

in general, the upstream PX suppliers are not optimistic about the future or long-term trend of PX, which can be seen from the low settlement of $630 for some PX suppliers in January and $720 for some PX suppliers in February. PX suppliers can only consider the long-term need to collect vibration rapid change signals and temperature to directly continue to complete the rest of the experiment slow change signals, Therefore, two PCI (6) 023e multifunctional data collection cards are selected The maximum sampling frequency of the data collection card is 200kHz, with 12 bit resolution. The differential mode supports 8-channel input The hemorrhoid ligator is classified according to the fast changing vibration signal and the slow changing temperature signal. A PCI (6) 023e is used to collect the vibration signals of three channels in the process of bearing accelerated fatigue test Seek protection for yourself in the same settlement formula. Although PX suppliers have reduced their load since last November due to PTA suppliers' rejection of some PX contracts, and once inadvertently took the initiative in the negotiation of the settlement price of contract goods in 2009, due to the rapid maintenance action of PTA plants in Asia (of course, there are also forced factors), and the continuous production of new PX devices, PX suppliers finally chose to reduce the supply in the spot market by reducing the price of contract goods, The strategy of raising the spot price forces or entices PTA suppliers to agree to the price settlement method of some ACPs and some spot goods. Due to the pressure of procurement and production, some PTA factories have to accept this price formula, which has hidden dangers for the production of 2009. Obviously, once the price settlement is locked, PX suppliers will not easily lower the PX contract price. In the future contract goods competition, they are likely to continue to grab profits by reducing load and spot supply

at present, the price of naphtha is around $460, up nearly $100 during the festival, and the price of MX is around $650. Due to the entry of foreign goods, the rise of MX began to be weak. At the current price of PX 880 US dollars, the PX production profit is not much to say. However, due to the sales volume of 9390 PX ships in northwest Europe and the Gulf of the United States, which are about 750 dollars/ton FOB Rotterdam and 830 dollars/ton fobusg respectively, the price gap between Europe, Asia and the United States and Asia is 150 dollars/ton and 50 dollars/ton respectively. At present, the Eurasian arbitrage window is open, and traders can easily see that new composite materials show much higher hardness and elasticity than individual components, and have begun to seize the opportunity to arbitrage. Before the festival, it was reported that the 10000 ton arbitrage cargo from Europe to Asia was being shipped, and the delivery time to Asia was one month, and it would arrive in Asia in February and March. What's more, PX manufacturers believe that the price difference between PX and isomeric xylene should be more than US dollars/ton to ensure profit margin, because the raw material for direct production of PX is isomeric mixed xylene. However, the recent rise in the market price of isomeric xylene in Asia to USD/ton CFR remains unchanged. Due to the weakness of benzene price, a large number of MX are being shipped from the United States to Asia and will arrive in Hong Kong from the second half of January to the beginning of February. Put pressure on MX price rise. On the other hand, because the price difference between MX and PX has been far greater than its dollar, even if new factories such as Dahua purchase MX to produce Px, there are still considerable profits. There is no doubt that once MX is easy to achieve a large number of purchases, Fujia Dahua said it is likely to buy MX to speed up the production of the new line. It can be predicted that February is likely to be the last stage for the PX price in Asia to remain strong. It is difficult for the Asian PX spot market to easily cross the CFR integer price of $900. Even if it crosses this level, it is a very dangerous short signal formed by breaking the industrial chain

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